Here’s a shocker: Does your Realtor use the “rear view mirror” to make recommendations?

6 Month Real Estate Market Forecast for the Northeast

Is the Market Really Getting Better or Not?

The Northeast Metro Area has been experiencing slight increases in values and overall demand for the last ninety days. In our professional opinion, this false increase* is not a true indication of the actual overall market conditions. After closer review of the market data, you’ll notice that we are already beginning to see declines in market values and demand.

Transactions from November 2009 to January 2010 or later were “in contract and or closed sales” just prior to the ending of the federal tax credit for first and second time buyers. In addition, as of March 31, 2010 the federal government discontinued supporting the secondary mortgage market by no longer participating in the acquisition of CMBS (Commercial Mortgage Backed Securities). Contrary to the expected increase in retail mortgage rates after March 31, 2010, retail mortgage rates have declined over the last 60 days. We feel that this decrease in mortgage rates was the result of 10 Year Treasuries and the overall Bond markets experiencing new in flows of capital from investors exiting foreign/oversea markets.

Estimated Market Forecast for the Northeast Metro Area Real Estate Economy:

• During Q1-2 of 2010, the Northeast has been experiencing pricing declines between 0 to -.25 per month. Looking forward to Q3-4, we actually anticipate increased downward pressure of between -.25% and -.50 % per month.

• Median priced properties will typically experience less severe declines in demand as well as over all pricing. In contrast, we do anticipate more dramatic declines in the high-end luxury markets as there is obviously less demand and or liquidity for buyers in this market sector.

• We are calling for market stabilization between Q4 of 2010 and Q1 2011 without a return to normal/traditional market appreciate of 3-5% per year until sometime between Q4 2012 and Q1 2013.

Look out for more of Shallis “On the Street Translations” in the coming weeks and as news breaks.

Does your Realtor truly know what’s going on in the ever changing real estate market? Professional knowledge and experience is what you need. Call Sean T. Shallis immediately at 1-800-295-5995 x.911 or contact us on our website to work with the “Market Makers” and get the deal you deserve!

Bloomberg interviews Sean Shallis about Short Sales

With foreclosures still on the rise, the real estate market has found salvation in the short sale market. The short sale of a home is possible when the property sells for less than the amount owed on the loan. In order to make this possible, the mortgage lender must agree to discount the balance of the loan due to the financial hardship of the borrower.

Benefits of a Short Sale

As I explain in this video interview Short Sales benefit a neighborhood because they clear out stagnant properties that may have an adverse effect on value. We currently have several short sale properties available, some with stunning views of the Manhattan skyline, and we haven’t had trouble finding potential buyers. In every case we had multiple offers from people who had plenty of money to put down. Americans are out there still buying homes and trying to move it along. In our experience Short Sales can be complicated but definitely reward those investors who have patience and know a great deal when it’s presented to them. Going through the short sale process with a specialist short sale Realtor can definitely make all the difference between closing on a deal or having it fall through.

To view the full article, please visit bloomberg.com. To view video footage, please visit bloomberg.com video.

Now is the time to take advantage of the deep discount short sale market. Click the link to learn more about short sale properties in New Jersey.

Sean T Shallis and The Shallis Group are considered one of the Nations leading Short Sales experts. Call Sean immediately for a personal and confidential conversation about your personal situation. My direct line is 201-427-1032.

Homebuyer Tax Credit Passes in Congress

Urgent update on the first time home buyer tax credit…

Great news for both Buyers and Sellers!

Both the House and Senate pass through legislation to extend and expand the first time home buyer tax credit. This new legislation will extend the current $8,000 tax credit, which would have expired November 30, to the new date of May 1, 2010. In addition to the tax credit extension for first time buyers, this new legislation adds a $6,500 tax credit to repeat buyers as long as they have lived in their home for five of the last eight years. Eligible home prices must be under $800,000. Additional requirements include an income limit of $125,000 for individuals and $225,000 for joint buyers.

Home buyers who have a signed contract by April 30, 2010 will also be allowed another 60 days to close on the property. For those in the military serving overseas between January 1, 2009 to May 1, 2010, the credit has been extended another year.

In addition to the tax credit news, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, announced this week that interest rates would remain at their current level for some time to come. This is great news to the real estate market and, more importantly, to potential buyers.

Now is the time to stop looking from the sidelines and start BUYING IMMEDIATELY! We may never see another time in the real estate market where the prices and interest rates remain historically low!

Your Uncle Sam is saying, “BUY NOW…I’ll even give you some money to help you out in the way of a tax credit incentive”… NOW is the time to take advantage of the real estate market. There are plenty of Hoboken and Jersey City properties available to meet your needs and qualify for the tax credit.

To capitalize on this amazing opportunity, call me immediately. My direct number is 201-427-1032… Say, “Your Uncle Sam told you to call”!

In this real estate market finding experienced real estate help is essential. Please contact Sean T Shallis at The Shallis Group for a personal consultation on your buying or selling needs at 201-427-1032.

First Time Home Buyer Tax Credit: Extension gets approval from Obama

The first time home buyer tax credit, which expires November 30, gets an approval from the Obama administration for an extension and expansion.

The $8000 tax credit given to qualifying new home buyers has undoubtedly given the real estate market a bolster in the right direction. What happens once the tax credit is gone is up for great debate. Fortunately, and with a sigh of relief, it looks as though the real estate market will get a reprieve from the upcoming deadline with an extension endorsed by the Obama administration.

The tentative agreement reached in the Senate would not only extend the current tax credit, it would also expand to include current homeowners wanting to move. The credit being discussed for current homeowners who move could come to $6500 provided they purchase their home before the new deadline, which could come in April. Reportedly, in order for current homeowners to qualify for the new tax credit, they must have resided in their current home for five years.

So when will the speculation be over?
Any of the several purposed tax credits have still yet to hit the floor of Congress for a vote. Although, with the endorsement from the Obama administration, pressure is certainly being applied to get this done quickly.

Is all the fuss about the tax credit worthwhile?
This is a great question with numerous answers depending your personal situation. For example, for the first time buyer with a individual income of $75,000 or less annually or a combined income of $150K or less for married couples, it’s an additional 8K in their pocket!

In contrast, for the buyer who has owned in the past 3 years and/or earns more than the maximum income guidelines, extending the credit will have very little ‘direct impact’ to their personal situation. Even with the possible expansion for repeat buyers, they must have owned the residence they are selling for five consecutive years. With regards to the sellers, the answer becomes more complicated. If your considering selling your home in the near future I would suggest calling me immediately at 201-427-1032 for a personal and confidential conversation in regard to the impact of the credit.

With interest rates still at an all time low and the tax credit incentive still available, this is the time to take advantage of the real estate market. There are plenty of Hoboken and Jersey City properties available to meet your needs.

In this real estate market finding experienced real estate help is essential. Please contact Sean T Shallis at The Shallis Group for a personal consultation on your buying or selling needs at 201-427-1032.

(additional source: cnn.com)

New Jersey Boasts the Most Expensive Zip Code

Move over Beverly Hills. Manhattan…forget about it! The most expensive zip code in the U.S. is home to none other than New Jersey. According to Forbes list of 100 priciest zip codes for 2009, zip code 07620 is the most expensive zip code in the country. The average home is estimated at over $4.1 million making this a hot spot for plenty of celebrities.

However, just as the rest of the country has been hit by the downturn in the real estate market, this Bergen county community has also seen its fair share of foreclosures and falling home prices. On average, home prices have dropped almost 25% from last year’s already low numbers.

Northern California comes in second in Atherton, zip code 94027, with an average home value of $3.85. Coming in with the third highest home value is New York’s West Village neighborhood, zip code 10014, with an average asking price of $3.5 million. Other New Jersey neighborhoods making it to the top 100 list also include New Vernon coming in at number 57, Far Hills at number 84 followed by Saddle River coming in at number 85.

Finding an experienced professional real estate team that knows the New Jersey market is essential. Please contact Sean T Shallis at The Shallis Group for a personal consultation on your buying or selling needs at 201-427-1032.

New Home Sales on the Rise in July

Sales of new home builds take an unexpected jump in July.

The ride on the real estate roll-a-coaster takes yet another turn. This time, it’s a turn for the better! The number for new home sales in July reached their highest level in almost a year. According to the Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD), new home sales were up 9.6% from the month of June. Increases have also been reported in existing home sales, home prices (depending on the area) and affordability.

Why the market’s looking up:
According to Bob Walters, Quicken Loans chief economist, “There are many economic conditions that led to the surge. Certainly low mortgage rates, huge price reductions on the high inventory of new builds, and the first-time home buyer tax credit have been instrumental in getting consumers to take the plunge into the real estate pool of opportunity.”

Adding to the increase in new home sales is the fact that fewer contracts are being canceled. In some hard hit areas, such as Phoenix, cancellation rates have been almost cut in half compared to last year. Inventory was also reduced to a more manageable 7.5 month supply. However, with the new home buyer tax credit ending November 30, these numbers might not last long.

Between existing and purposed tax incentives, low mortgage rates and home prices, this could become a buyer’s paradise and finding the right real estate help is essential. Please contact Sean T Shallis at The Shallis Group for a personal consultation on your buying or selling needs at 201-427-1032.

(source: money.cnn.com)

Market Jumps in July 7.2%: Are you ready?

Purchases of existing homes increased 5% compared with a year earlier. The median price dropped to $178,400 from $210,100 in July 2008.

From CNBC:

Existing Home Sales Rise at Fastest Pace in Two Years

Sales of previously owned U.S. homes jumped 7.2 percent in July to mark the fastest sales pace in nearly two years, an industry survey showed Friday, in a strong sign that housing is pulling out of a three-year slump.

Sales in July rose for the fourth straight month to hit an annual rate of 5.24 million units, the highest rate since August 2007, the National Association of Realtors said, beating market expectations for a 5 million unit pace. Sales in June had been at a 4.89 million pace.

July’s increase was the largest monthly gain since the series started in 1999. The last time sales rose for four consecutive months was in June 2004, the NAR said.
…
“Overall, these figures may suggest that the recovery in housing activity is gathering pace, but there is a long way to go yet,” said Paul Dales, U.S. economist at Capital Economics in Toronto.

From the Star Ledger:

N.J., Northeast real estate sales rise, signaling a bottom

For the first time in two-and-a-half years, home sales are higher in the Northeast than they were the year before, a real estate association said today.

Home sales were up 3.3 percent over July 2008 and went up 13.4 percent from the previous month, the National Association of Realtors said. A third of sales were considered distressed transactions, such as foreclosures or short sales.

“This is the number that we have been waiting for – an actual year-over-year increase for the nation as a whole,” said Joseph Seneca, an economics and policy professor at Rutgers University. “There is an enormously long road back, but this, finally, is a vigorous first step.”

The median price of homes sold in the Northeast was 15 percent below last year. Half of homes sold for more than $236,700, and half for less. In July 2008, the median price was at $278,600.
…
“This is evidence of a market bottoming,” said Susan Wachter, professor of real estate at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania.

This does not mean that sales will keep rising on a straight path, analysts say. More likely the market will, as they say, bump along the bottom.

“While it’s turning, we’re at lows, and we’re likely to remain at lows,” Wachter said. “The fundamentals are still negative. The fundamentals of growing unemployment – that’s the major issue out there.”

Unemployment in New Jersey rose from 9.2 percent in June to 9.3 percent in July.

The state has seen signs of a bottom of the market, and perhaps a turnaround, for a few months, according to data from the Otteau Valuation Group, an appraisal and analysis company that studies New Jersey real estate.

The number of signed contracts in New Jersey appeared to hit a bottom in May, which saw the numbers stay flat compared with May 2008. Signed contracts rose 12 percent in June over the previous year and 8 percent in July, according to the company.

“It’s very exciting,” company president Jeffrey Otteau said. “These are very positive signs for the housing market, and we’re beginning to see some isolated towns where home prices have started to rise.”

Real Estate Got You Down? Think of Carlos Justo!

So when your having a challenging day and you think “it can’t get any worse”, it’s easy for the rock stars to say, “Have a positive attitude…Don’t be attached to the outcome!” What do you do when your $20 million in the hole?

The following is a very true story of a personal friend of mine, Carlos Justo the rock star of real estate. Carlos Justo’s empire reached 200 Million in volume in a year.. oh on about 50 transactions! Though Carlos may not be very good at managing money, there is a tremendous amount to learn from him in regard to his mindset, positive attitude and giving heart!

One of my most vivid experiences with Carlos was about 6 years ago. The market was flying and Carlos and I were accountability partners. We’d speak daily to say I did or didn’t do my job today. During this relationship my grandmother passed in Florida. She lived about 30 minutes south of Miami.

I’ll never forget that morning talking to Carlos from her house several hours after her passing. He realized instantly something was wrong. After I explained what had just happened he said (in typical flamboyant Carlos fashion), “Baby, baby…I’m so sorry to hear about your grandmother.” To make a long story short, it was going to be several days before the services.

Carlos sent his Bentley limo to pick me up and drive me to his penthouse on the strip in South Beach, FL. He said, “I’ll be in St. John for a month. Stay as long as you like. My butler and driver will take care of your every need. If you need anything you call them or me!” Funny, it’s a lot easier to relax in a multi-million dollar penthouse over looking South Beach with fresh squeezed juice and breakfast prepared for you…

The moral of my story: physical and or financial defeat is temporary….We are only defeated when we mentally quit! Knowing Carlos, the next article we’ll read will be something along the lines of, “Flamboyant Real Estate Agent Buys Yacht ….! “

Read the story of a personal friend of mine Carlos Justo on Yahoo.com.

Hoboken Condo Market: Market Summary and Forecast

Market Summary and Forecast for the Hudson County, Specifically Hoboken, Condo Market:

The following forecast is based upon evaluating the statistical data and traffic patterns of properties both in our inventory and throughout Hoboken and Hudson County Markets. In addition, we’ve informally surveyed and collected supporting data in our day to day course of business with cooperating agents, vendors, wholesalers and retail customers.

Influencing Factors in the Hoboken Market
In my professional opinion, I feel the Hoboken Condo market is going to continue to trend downward over the next two quarters between 3-5% over all. This number may increase as a result of the FHA policy changes on Oct 1^st 2009, Truth and Lending Policy July 30^th 2009, banks and financial institutions reluctance to accept ‘short sales and or a Deed-in-Lieu’ and the staggering 700,000 foreclosures being held off the market by banks and financial institutions. It should be noted that many of the larger financial institutions have been following the newly revised Truth and Lending Policy guidelines for over six months now. Though we are not exactly sure how the changes mentioned above will effect the market over-all, our informal research and the opinions of market professionals anticipate “growing pains” at best.

The Market’s Future
We realize the real estate market isn’t going to zero…In my professional opinion, we see the Hudson County and Hoboken real estate market stabilizing in Q1 and Q2 of 2010 and begin to show moderate signs of recovery in Q1 of 2011. One determining factor in making this analysis is the following: we estimate more than 40% of the condo buyers in Hoboken work in the financial markets. Contrary to other real estate markets, we typically see a moderate increase in buyer traffic beginning in Q3 and Q4, year after year. In short, these same buyers are basing their acquisitions less on emotions or the needs of a growing family and more on year-end and/or performance bonuses from their jobs. Our estimated recovery time lines are in direct correlation with the predictions of economic and Wall Street experts. As the stock and equities markets recover and trading activity increases so will the young professionals buying power with the renewal of year-end and/or compensation bonuses.

In closing, we truly honor and appreciate your confidence in Weichert Realtors and The Shallis Group. We are committed to continuing to out-perform both the market average and similar competing properties with higher execution prices. Please call Sean TShallis directly at 201-427-1032 for a personal consultation.

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